Somewhat weirdly, I do think that massively cheaper AI will give us a reduction in energy. Use. The reason is that although energy use for AI will undoubtedly go up, one of the applications of AI will be to reduce energy use everywhere else. And my guess is that the improvement in efficiency from applying AI to the rest of the economy will outweigh the increase in energy use on AI itself.
It's a great point that AI might help us reduce energy across other systems, thus offsetting its own usage. One thing that gives me pause though is the difficulty of change management.
We currently already have many good software solutions (if not AI) that can dramatically increase efficiency across a number of energy systems -- from cold storage and refrigeration to indoor climate for commercial spaces -- and we don't use them widely. There's powerful stasis in existing / incumbent industries that makes it hard for efficiency solutions to break through.
Ultimately, I believe this is because of how cheap energy is when we don't price in emissions, which erodes the incentive for operators of these energy systems to make (inconvenient) changes in order to shave some of their cost, which they can just pass on to consumers anyway.
I'm certain that AI will find the answers, just as software already has, but whether we implement them is a different story.
ngl I feel like Deepseek catalyst will in the short/medium run further incentivize tech firms to try and build out AI infrastructure (energy mainly) as fast as possible, which in the US means natural gas generators. There’s a reason why XOM/CVX have seemingly decided to reallocate some attention to nat gas generator build out. The worst case scenario is happening as we speak. Yes, tech firms will sign agreements to purchase power from renewable energy projects (which will take years to get running) and in the meantime compete for available 24/7 sources (fossil fuels). Great read nonetheless!!
You and I are in 100% agreement. I didn’t say which scenario I thought was most likely (#2, which as you noted is already well underway and will only accelerate under arms race dynamics, whether or not that energy has an immediate offtake today); just wanted to present three possibilities and wishcast a bit. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.
Somewhat weirdly, I do think that massively cheaper AI will give us a reduction in energy. Use. The reason is that although energy use for AI will undoubtedly go up, one of the applications of AI will be to reduce energy use everywhere else. And my guess is that the improvement in efficiency from applying AI to the rest of the economy will outweigh the increase in energy use on AI itself.
It's a great point that AI might help us reduce energy across other systems, thus offsetting its own usage. One thing that gives me pause though is the difficulty of change management.
We currently already have many good software solutions (if not AI) that can dramatically increase efficiency across a number of energy systems -- from cold storage and refrigeration to indoor climate for commercial spaces -- and we don't use them widely. There's powerful stasis in existing / incumbent industries that makes it hard for efficiency solutions to break through.
Ultimately, I believe this is because of how cheap energy is when we don't price in emissions, which erodes the incentive for operators of these energy systems to make (inconvenient) changes in order to shave some of their cost, which they can just pass on to consumers anyway.
I'm certain that AI will find the answers, just as software already has, but whether we implement them is a different story.
ngl I feel like Deepseek catalyst will in the short/medium run further incentivize tech firms to try and build out AI infrastructure (energy mainly) as fast as possible, which in the US means natural gas generators. There’s a reason why XOM/CVX have seemingly decided to reallocate some attention to nat gas generator build out. The worst case scenario is happening as we speak. Yes, tech firms will sign agreements to purchase power from renewable energy projects (which will take years to get running) and in the meantime compete for available 24/7 sources (fossil fuels). Great read nonetheless!!
You and I are in 100% agreement. I didn’t say which scenario I thought was most likely (#2, which as you noted is already well underway and will only accelerate under arms race dynamics, whether or not that energy has an immediate offtake today); just wanted to present three possibilities and wishcast a bit. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.
Good to see the talk around Jevons Paradox catching up in the mainstream.
Thanks for painting the AI x energy scenarios - it’s going to be a significant part of the changing world order!
It’s classic “induced demand” and why I specifically call out Reversible compute as a necessity for the next era. Don’t sleep on it because otherwise we are kinda fucked! https://open.substack.com/pub/earthstar111/p/facing-our-waste-with-grace-is-our?selection=e8d4019f-e258-4a45-94eb-540307511f08&utm_campaign=post-share-selection&utm_medium=web