Here's one of the single highest-impact climate actions you can take today
After initially attempting writing a big long thought piece about the role of civic engagement in climate mitigation, I decided it would be better and faster to go straight for the punchline:
The Environmental Voter Project is a data-driven nonprofit that is doing some of the highest-impact work on climate change mitigation in the United States.
They use data science to precision-identify eligible voters who care deeply about climate change but who either don’t vote at all or don’t vote very much, and get them mobilized to vote. They’re non-partisan, so they don’t do political or policy advocacy; their only goal is to figure out if you care about climate, and if so, get you to vote.
EVP is kicking off their big fall fundraiser right now, so if you’re intrigued by their data-driven approach to climate action, stay with me for a few interesting tidbits in the rest of this writeup.
Below, we’ll look at:
Are there really climate-passionate people who don’t vote?
The true goal of voting (it’s less about winning than you think)
Sometimes it is about winning, though
Why local elections matter so much
What you can do today
And, if you’re already a fan, please consider donating here.
Your donation is extra impactful in non-presidential election years like 2021, where there’s less limelight but more work being done!
(Note: I volunteer my time as a board advisor to this awesome organization.)
Are there really climate-passionate people who don’t vote?
EVP’s predictive models have identified over 15 million eligible American voters who are highly likely to list “climate and environment” as their number one political priority, but who don’t vote, or only seldom vote — especially in the less flashy down-ballot races that often have a bigger influence in how climate policy gets implemented in cities, counties and states.
For scale:
There are 5.5 million members of the NRA, which registers as of the nation’s most influential lobbying forces, and which has been highly effective in shaping US policy and legislation towards its interests.
In the 2016 presidential race, which Donald Trump won by a margin of 80,000 people in swing districts , there were 10.1 million climate-concerned voters who sat out the election.
A lot of these infrequent or never-voters won’t share that they don’t vote, but the voter rolls don’t lie. The reasons they give are all over the board, but the real reasons are often basic informational or structural barriers — not knowing about early voting and absentee voting, and a general perception that voting is inconvenient and hard to do.
Why, besides winning elections, is it so important to activate these people?
The true goal of voting (it’s less about winning than you think)
“But they’ll never get past the gridlock to implement the climate policies I want!”
Many of us, my previous self included, don’t fully get how voting works. Voting is not just about winning versus losing, even if those votes are in a crucial swing state.
Instead, the act of voting is about adding to a count so that a given interest group can show their power in numbers.
Here’s how it works:
Every politician, lobbyist and political consultant has access to public voter rolls that tell them who votes on every block of every neighborhood of every district they care to monitor. Voters are openly accessible to political entities who use them to opportunity-size specific interest groups in order to determine which groups should be listened to, based on their members’ likelihood to vote and vote again.
A politician’s job is to represent their constituents, so if a climate-passionate doesn’t vote — perhaps thinking, I live in a blue district so my vote won’t be additional and won’t matter — then they won’t show up in the count. If they don’t show up in the count, then the elected official will not be motivated to represent or fight for their interests.
Here’s an example:
Politician Abby knows that '25-30 Year Old Males' care a lot about climate change. But whoops, she only counts a total of twenty '25-30 Year Old Males' in her district because the majority of them are too busy / uninformed / jaded to vote.
As a result, Politician Abby is unlikely to bring climate change mitigation into her agenda, even if she’s personally passionate about the topic, because her job is to represent the issues that have the highest count of warm bodies that are most likely to get her reelected in the next cycle.
Beyond winning elections, this why voting matters. The perception of critical mass moves rhetoric and policy.
Sometimes it is about winning, though
That said, winning is great.
In the 2020 presidential election, one of the highest turnout elections on record, Joe Biden was elected by a margin of 313,253 votes across the swing states of AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA and WI.
That same election, EVP activated 999,048 environmentalists to vote for the first time in their lives. Their randomized controlled trials showed that they increased voter turnout among their targeted voters by +1.8% in PA, +0.6% in FL and +0.9% in Georgia’s US Senate runoffs.
It’s impossible to point to any single factor as the winning move for an election (and anyone who attempts to take this credit is probably not using randomized controlled trials), but it’s extremely meaningful to drive this level of additional turnout in a headline election that already had record-high, and against the noise of record-high spend ($14B on the general election!).
But, as important as it was, it’s a mistake to focus only on the general election.
Why local elections matter so much
Local policymakers are the unsung heroes (or villains) of American political life. They’re often the ones building the guidelines that most directly affect our daily lives — things like how much clean energy the grid must have, to roadway and parking rules that shape transportation and congestion, to whether buildings should be fossil-free, to how much tree canopy a city should protect.
But the main reason why local elections are such an important area of focus is simply because they’re low-hanging fruit — local elections are decided by a shockingly small minority of eligible voters.
From Nathaniel Stinnett, EVP’s Executive Director:
“Often forgotten or ignored, local elections are actually the low-hanging fruit of climate politics, where a small uptick in turnout of environmental voters can swing election results and have an enormous impact on policy-making.
In 2013, when New York City last held an open mayoral election, fewer than 700,000 New Yorkers voted in the crowded Democratic primary which Bill DiBlasio ultimately won by 100,000 votes. This might sound like a large number at first, but New York is home to 8.2 million people.
There are a stunning 1.1 million New Yorkers who care deeply about climate change but have never before voted in a municipal election, according to EVP data. This represents a huge pool of latent political power for New York City’s climate movement.
When Boston last had an open mayoral election (also in 2013), only 142,000 people cast ballots and Marty Walsh was elected by a margin of less than 5,000 votes. Yet, EVP data found that more than 110,000 of Boston's presidential election voters named climate as one of their top priorities, but are currently unlikely to cast a ballot in this November’s open mayoral race based on their previous voting histories. If even 10% of these infrequent environmental voters show up this fall, they could easily decide Boston’s next mayor.”
Mayors in particular can do a lot for climate in many of the biggest categories:
Transportation (29% of US greenhouse gas emissions)
“Climate-forward mayors can quickly slash these emissions with policies like congestion-pricing, parking maximums, bus rapid transit and robust bike and pedestrian infrastructure.”
Buildings (12% of US greenhouse gas emissions)
“Small tweaks to municipal zoning and building codes can dramatically reduce the carbon footprint of our nation’s building stock, while delivering energy savings to millions.”
Energy (Electricity generation accounts for 25% of US greenhouse gas emissions)
“City Halls' enormous purchasing power can super-charge demand for clean energy and electric vehicles, while over 2,000 local communities also run their own utilities, thereby giving local governments the power to decide between supplying clean or dirty energy to one in seven Americans.”
But it’s not just mayors. Members of utilities and other commissions regulate everything from electricity, to telecom, oil and gas, water, transportation, and play an important role in shaping incentives that shape behaviors. Back in May, Kentucky’s Public Service Commission stamped out an effort by Kentucky Power to set a rock-bottom price for net-metering, which would have greatly disincentivized people from installing rooftop solar given its high upfront cost and the role of net-metering in offsetting that cost. These are the building blocks of decarbonization.
If you’re thinking with your Climate Money hat on, then you’re probably starting to see a number of ways that local policymakers could open up meaningful market opportunities for climate startups and other businesses, whether that’s your local solar installer, Bird, Blocpower, Gradient, Recompose, Ridwell or just a local brick and mortar that would benefit from the increase in foot traffic in a newly car-free pedestrian zone.
What you can do today
Two things:
1/ Please consider supporting the Environmental Voter Project as part of their fall fundraiser.
This is a 100% donor-supported team of data scientists and community organizers that runs on an extremely lean budget.
They’ve created 730,000 environmental “super voters” over the past five years, which means those 730K people are out super-voting for a livable future in every single election, from school board up to US president.
This year, they’re focused on expanding to 5 new states where they’ve identified a big, untapped segment of nonvoting environmentalists: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, New York, and Texas. These states matter, and helping the right people get to the polls makes a big difference in how their political landscape will look going forward.
Suggested donation: $100
2/ If you want to learn more about EVP’s work and methodology, they’re hosting a live event next week
It’s on Sep 22 at 3pm PT
It’s just 30 minutes, but it’s a good chance to see some of the faces behind the action.
Whether or not you personally can vote in the United States (or you even live here), you can contribute to an effort that will ultimately roll up to affect climate policy and mitigation not just for people living in the US, but potentially for everyone everywhere.
I’m really proud to be a part of EVP, and hope you’ll join me in supporting their work.